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Tags: cbs news, breaking news, livestream, live news, weather, u.s. news, world news, politics, donald trump, top stories, trump administration, middle east, artemis, nasa, space, iran, iran war This video features a conversation between host Marty (from the YouTube channel Vocation) and author/researcher Ralph Ellis. They discuss Ellis's co-authored 2016 climate science paper, titled "Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks," and analyze historical climate trends, Milankovitch cycles, atmospheric CO2, and paleoclimate flood events. Key Topics & Comprehensive Summary 1. Context and Research Overview Paper Origin: Ellis co-authored the paper with chemist Michael Palmer to address why mainstream climate science fails to explain how glacial cycles and interglacial warm periods are modulated by terrestrial feedbacks. Core Argument: Contrary to standard climate models that treat carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as the primary feedback mechanism driving interglacial warming, Ellis argues that CO 2 plays a minor role (10% or less) and that dust-albedo feedbacks on Northern Hemisphere ice sheets are the dominant driver. 2. Critique of the CO2-Centric Climate Model Lag in CO 2 vs. Temperature: Antarctic ice core records over the last 800,000 years demonstrate that during interglacial transitions, global temperatures rise approximately 700 years before CO 2 levels rise. Oceans absorb CO 2 when cold and release (exhale) CO 2 when warmed, creating a correlation without primary causation. Northern Hemisphere Asymmetry: Interglacials occur almost exclusively during Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. Because CO 2 is a well-mixed global gas, a CO 2 -driven model cannot adequately explain why interglacials are structurally tied to Northern Hemisphere landmasses and ice sheets. Sensitivity Estimates: Ellis aligns with lower climate sensitivity figures (e.g., Dr. John Christy’s estimate of ≈1.1 ∘ C warming per doubling of CO 2 ), arguing that IPCC models overestimate warming through exaggerated feedback assumptions. 3. Plant Biology, Partial Pressure, and "CO2 Deserts" CO 2 as Plant Food: C 3 plants (which comprise almost all tree species and most global vegetation) begin dying off or failing to reproduce when atmospheric CO 2 drops below 150–160 ppm. Altitude and Partial Pressure: Atmospheric pressure decreases with altitude, lowering the partial pressure of CO 2 . During glacial periods, when global CO 2 dropped to ≈180–190 ppm at sea level, high-altitude regions (such as the Gobi Plateau at 2,000+ feet) reached the critical 160 ppm equivalent partial pressure threshold. Soil Erosion & Dust Generation: This CO 2 starvation caused widespread dieback of boreal forests and step grasslands at high elevations, creating massive upland "CO2 deserts." Soil erosion followed, producing immense dust storms originating from Asia (e.g., the Taklamakan and Gobi regions). Historical Carbon Sequestration: Over hundreds of millions of years, marine organisms (limestone formation) and plants (coal/fossil fuel deposits) locked away CO 2 . Ellis notes that fungal evolution (breaking down lignin) and modern fossil fuel combustion prevented atmospheric CO 2 from dropping to extinction-level minimums during glacial peaks. 4. The Dust-Albedo Feedback Mechanism Ice Sheet Contamination: Fine dust generated from CO 2 deserts settled across Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Laurentide, Eurasian, Greenland). Albedo Reduction: Clean snow reflects 85–90% of incoming solar radiation. Contaminating ice with dust drops its albedo significantly (down to 0.40–0.50), causing dirty ice to absorb up to 140 W/m 2 of additional solar energy during processional summer maxima—compared to an estimated ≈4 W/m 2 forcing from CO 2 doubling. Empirical Correlation: Ice core records over the last 800,000 years show that every major interglacial period was immediately preceded by approximately 10,000 years of intense atmospheric dust deposition. Self-Limiting Nature: As the ice sheets melt and temperatures rise, oceans release CO 2 , vegetation recovers, dust generation stops, and interglacial warming peaks once the Northern ice sheets have fully melted. 5. Milankovitch Cycles and Paleoclimate Map Corrections Orbital Cycles: Discussions cover precession (≈22,000–23,000-year cycles), obliquity/axial tilt (≈40,000-year cycles), and orbital eccentricity (≈400,000-year cycles). Missing Insolation Peaks: Insolation peaks alone do not guarantee an interglacial; bright white, clean ice sheets reflect away solar heat unless darkened by heavy dust accumulation. Re-evaluating Paleoclimate Tree Line Data: Ellis argues that paleoclimatologists erred by assuming historical tree line drops were caused entirely by extreme cold and aridity, rather than high-altitude CO 2 starvation. Factoring in CO 2 partial pressure eliminates the need for unrealistic atmospheric lapse rates in climate reconstructions. 6. The Younger Dryas, Sea Levels, and Flood History Younger Dryas Snap: Around 12,900 to 11,700 years ago, a sudden 1,000-year cold period interrupted post-glacial warming. Greenland ice cores reveal a temporary re-emergence of dust during this window. Ellis favors an external trigger hypothesis (such as a cosmic impact). Sea Level Rise: The end of the last glacial maximum saw sea levels rise by approximately 140 meters over several thousand years, submerging coastal shelf regions such as Doggerland in the North Sea. Historical Cataclysmic Floods: Black Sea Deluge: The rising Mediterranean breached the Bosphorus Strait around 12,000 years ago, rapidly refilling the dried Black Sea basin. Glacial Outbursts: Meltwater dams breaking across North America (e.g., Missoula Floods) created heavily scoured terrain and giant wave ripples. Mythological Connections: Ellis links real post-glacial flooding and astronomical observations to ancient flood stories (Egyptian myths of the Ark of Ra navigating the cosmic ocean of Nun, which influenced later narratives like the Genesis flood). The Science of Ice Ages: Dust, Albedo and Historical Climate Patterns | Ralph Ellis (#46) Vocation · 993 views
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